Forecasting in a Pandemic

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Understand where you stand now

Businesses fail (or fail to thrive) for a myriad of reasons, but the precursor is often a failure to understand what is occurring and what to monitor. Strategically, managers need to be on top of their numbers to identify and manage problems before they get out of hand. If you do not know what the key drivers of your business are - the things that make the difference between doing well and going under - then it's time to find out.

Understanding your cost structure

Do you know what your real cost of doing business is? Your breakeven point is the level of sales activity where your business is neither making a profit or a loss. Calculate your breakeven point by dividing your fixed expenses by your gross profit margin. This figure represents the level of sales income you need to breakeven.

Understanding your breakeven point is crucial particularly when supply chains are impacted.

Not only will your breakeven point assist you to monitor business performance, it's critical when deciding whether or not to offer a discount. If your breakeven point is well below your current operating level then you have a good buffer in your profits to manage growth, invest in further capital opportunities, and to protect yourself against further downturns in operating performance. And before you say "I know that," ask yourself how many people actually put this theory into practice. Even some of the largest businesses have been caught out on this one and tie up valuable resources in unprofitable projects and products.

Putting up your prices during down times is not an act of social betrayal. If your prices have increased you should flow these through unless you are comfortable making less for the same amount of effort, or you are in an industry that is so price sensitive you have no choice but to follow the lead of larger businesses.

Discounting creates a leverage impact on profits. By discounting you are giving away some or all of your profits. The key is to understand the impact and just how far you can go. For example, a business with a 30% gross profit margin that offers a 25% discount (certainly nothing unusual about that in today's market) needs a 500% increase in sales volume just to maintain the same position – and, in almost all cases, that's just not going to happen. The result generally is that the business trades below its breakeven point and generates a loss. You can only do that for a limited amount of time (and some of your larger competitors might be engaging in a discounting war with you in an attempt to bury you once and for all).

If your business needs cash and needs it quickly, discounting might be the only way to shift stock but understand the implications.

Plan, review and adjust

Your budget should be your best estimate of what is likely to occur based on current knowledge. To manage change, you can scenario plan where your budget forms the baseline, but you also forecast best and worst case scenarios based on potential risks and their likelihood (for example, the impact of another lockdown). Or, the simplest method is to use your budget as a baseline and regularly review and adjust depending on current conditions.

The greatest risk to your profit is unlikely to come from your cost structure. It is more likely to be revenue volatility. Keep your eye on your cost structure and make sensible cuts where appropriate. But, in your search for savings don't remove your essential revenue generating capacity that you need.

A lack of profit will eventually erode your business, but not enough cash will kill it stone dead. Businesses will fail because they don't manage their cash position. Plan, track and measure your cashflow. This not only means closely monitoring your debtor collections and inventory but also running a rolling three month cashflow position. This should provide an early warning of brewing problems.

Manage your debt levels carefully (your bank is likely to). While there is nothing wrong with debt, it is likely that the banks will be closely watching customer accounts. Where you have loan facilities in place make sure that you understand the loan terms and any debt covenants that you have entered into. These covenants could include regular reporting to the bank, debtor and working capital ratios, or debt to equity ratios. Where the banks may have been more relaxed about these in the past, this year will be different. If you believe that you need additional funding, talk to your bank early and don't wait until the last minute. You'll need to present your case on why you need it, how much, for how long and when it will be repaid.

Cash flows, operating budgets, cost control and debt management all need to be part of your business management. The more in control you are the lower your risk position.

Understand the external environment

The COVID-19 pandemic has implications well beyond the economy; it has changed how business operates and how consumers act. While comparisons are made to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the reality is, we have no case study. There is no rule book for the post pandemic road to recovery as this is not an economic event. The pandemic pulls the economy up short curtailing both supply and demand; businesses are not operating at capacity and fewer people are working.

The Federal Budget is released on 6 October and we're expecting to see the Government invest heavily in job creating projects. Many of these will be focussed on infrastructure. Each of these projects will have a flow through effect to the broader economy. We'll bring you our insights the day after the budget and you should loom to see if there are opportunities your business can capture.

Understanding your supply chain is important. Risk manage and plan for changing conditions. For example, what is your business's ability to manage a surge in demand, do you have a small supply base and what would happen if your primary supplier went into bankruptcy, do you have a good flow of information across your supply chain or is there a lack of transparency and knowledge, do transport problems risk your ability to supply? Assess it, understand it, and manage the risks.

When it comes to demand, there is no instant fix. The RBA suggests the decline in GDP in the first half of 2020 is around 7% and the contraction in hours worked around 10%. The economic impact of the restrictions in Melbourne extend well beyond Victoria and are impacting more generally on consumer sentiment. This week we expect Australia to have a formal "recession" label added to our economy, formalising what most business operators already know.

But it is not all bad news with confidence lifting on early signs that revenue is no longer declining for the majority of Australian businesses. The latest ABS data on the impact of COVID-19 shows fewer businesses reported a decline in revenue in August (41%) compared to July (46%), and fewer still expect a decline in September (28%).

However, 35% of businesses expect it to be "difficult or very difficult" to meet financial commitments over the next three months, with small and medium businesses almost twice as likely as large businesses to fall into this category. Understandably, the response to this question is heavily weighted towards those operating under Government required restrictions and lockdowns.

The RBA is working with three scenarios for Australia's economic outlook: a baseline, upside and downside scenario. In the baseline scenario, conditions improve in the second half of 2020 and slowly improve over 2021 and 2022 but fall short of returning to pre COVID forecasts with Victoria's lockdown not materially extended and Australia's international borders remaining closed until mid 2021. The upside scenario saw no extension of the Melbourne lockdown, and further easing of Government restrictions nationally, which in turn bolster consumer confidence, encouraging spending and the reversal of GDP decline over 2020-21. The downside scenario envisages a global resurgence in infections with Australia facing periodic outbreaks and rolling lockdowns. The RBA notes that the downside scenario has a sharper fall than the increase of the upside scenario because of the damage to consumer confidence of further lockdowns.

Business investment is also expected to be relatively flat with the ABS survey showing that 37% of those surveyed had no actual or planned expenditure. Of those that are spending, IT hardware and software, and equipment and machinery topped the list. The instant asset write-off is helping to stimulate business investment in the small and medium business sector. In general, large businesses are paying down debt rather than spending and small and medium businesses have not sought to extend debt to fund investment.
Note: The material and contents provided in this publication are informative in nature only. It is not intended to be advice and you should not act specifically on the basis of this information alone. If expert assistance is required, professional advice should be obtained.

By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
The amount of money that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account will increase to $2m on 1 July 2025. Each year, advisers await the December inflation statistics to the be released. The reason is simple, the transfer balance cap – the amount that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account – is indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released each December. If inflation goes up, the general transfer balance cap is indexed in increments of $100,000 at the start of the financial year. In December 2024, the inflation rate triggered an increase in the cap from $1.9m to $2m. The complexity with the transfer balance cap is that each person has an individual transfer balance cap. If you have started a retirement income stream, when indexation occurs, any increase only applies to your unused transfer balance cap. Considering retiring in 2025? If you are considering retiring, either fully or partially, indexation of the transfer balance cap provides a one-off opportunity to increase the amount of money you can transfer to your tax-free retirement account. That is, if you start taking a retirement income stream for the first time in June 2025, your transfer balance cap will be $1.9m but if you wait until July 2025 your transfer balance cap will be $2m, an extra tax-free $100,000. Already taking a pension? If you are already taking a retirement income stream, indexation applies to your unused transfer balance cap - so you might not benefit from the full $100,000 increase on 1 July 2025. Where can I see what my cap is? Your superannuation fund reports the value of your superannuation interests to the ATO. You can view your personal transfer balance cap, available cap space, and transfer balance account transactions online through the ATO link in myGov . If you have a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF), it is very important that your reporting obligations are up to date.
By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
In the 2025-26 Federal Budget the Government announced a ban on non-compete clauses and “no poach” agreements. In the 2025-26 Federal Budget, the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on high incomes (under the Fair Work Act the high income threshold is currently $175,000). The reason? A recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report found that 46.9% of businesses surveyed used some kind of restraint clause, including for workers in non-executive roles. The survey also found 20.8% of businesses use non-compete clauses for at least some of their staff and 68.2% for more than three-quarters of their employees. From an economic perspective, declining job mobility impacts wage growth and innovation as restraints prevent access to skilled workers within the economy. Productivity is a key concern as Australia’s productivity has declined in the last 20 years. Treasury’s consultation paper Non-compete clauses and other restraints states that, “the direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.” A Productivity Commission report estimates the effect of limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses will be increased wages for workers - by up to up to 2.4% in industries with high use of non-compete clauses and up to 1.4% in others. Non-competes: the state of play  Non-compete clauses in Australia are generally enforced under common law. For all regions except New South Wales, restraints are generally presumed to be against the public interest and therefore void and unenforceable except where they are deemed to be reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interest of the employer1. In NSW, a restraint of trade is valid to the extent to which it is not against public policy. When non-competes are contested, the courts consider the nature and extent of the business interest to be protected (e.g., confidential client information) and whether the scope of restriction the business wants imposed is reasonable including its geographic area, time period and activities which the restraint seeks to control. Interests considered ‘legitimate’ by courts include the protection of trade secrets or other confidential information; protection against solicitation of clients with whom the former worker had a personal connection; and protection against key staff being recruited by a former colleague. An employer is not entitled to protect themselves against mere competition by a former worker . What now The ban on non-compete clauses was announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget. The Government has stated that it intends to consult on policy details, including exemptions, penalties, and transition arrangements. Following consultation and the passage of legislation, the reforms are anticipated to take effect from 2027, operating prospectively. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage about this measure, despite the enthusiasm of the Treasury economists, not least of which is the impending election. We’ll bring you more as further information is available.
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
From 1 July 2026, personal income tax rates will change. On the last sitting day of Parliament, the personal income tax rate reduction announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget was confirmed. The modest reduction of 1% applies to the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket, reducing from its current rate of 16% to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28. The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year. With a 1 July 2026 start date, the outcome of the Federal election on 3 May 2025 and subsequent budgets will determine whether this change comes to fruition. Medicare levy threshold change for low-income earners Low-income earners do not pay the compulsory 2% Medicare levy until their assessable income reaches the threshold. The threshold is different depending on whether you are a single taxpayer, pensioner, and the number of children you have that are dependent on you. Parliament has confirmed the increase to the Medicare levy threshold announced in the Federal Budget. The threshold change is backdated to 1 July 2024, which means that taxpayers will benefit when they lodge their 2024-25 tax return. See our Budget 2025-26 summary for details.
Super guarantee rules catch up with employers
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
The superannuation guarantee rules are broad and, in some circumstances, extend beyond the definition of common law employees to some directors, contractors, entertainers, sports persons and other workers. Employers need to pay compulsory superannuation guarantee (SG) to those considered employees under the definition in the SG rules. But, the SG definition of an employee is broad and just how far this definition extends has sparked debate of late about the rights of performers, gym instructors and others not typically considered employees. For employers and business owners, it is crucially important that if there is any uncertainty about the rights of workers to SG, your position is confirmed. This might be an initial assessment of the position by us, confirmed by an employment lawyer, or clarified by applying for a ATO private ruling covering your specific workplace arrangements. One of the things that employers find most alarming is that there is no tangible time limit on the recovery of outstanding SG obligations. In theory, the ATO can go back as far as it determines necessary to recover unpaid superannuation contributions for workers who are classified as employees for SG purposes. One of the key features of the SG system is to ensure that appropriate contributions are being made for employees and deemed employees, to adequately support them in their retirement. The SG laws, and complimentary director penalty regime, ensure that every cent owing to an employee for SG is paid. Who is not paid super guarantee? Super guarantee does not need to be paid to: Under 18s who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Private and domestic workers who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Non-resident employees who perform work outside of Australia. Employees temporarily working in Australia covered by an agreement. Some foreign executives who hold certain visas or entry permits. Generally, SG is not payable if you have entered into a contract with a company, trust or partnership. If you have Australian employees temporarily working outside of Australia in a country with a bilateral social security agreement , for example, the United States, you should continue paying SG and apply for a certificate of coverage to avoid paying super (or the equivalent) in the country where the employee is temporarily located. SG’s broader definition of an employee There is a section of the SG rules, section 12 , that specifies who is deemed to be an employee for SG purposes. This section extends the definition of an employee beyond common law to cover: Company directors who are remunerated for performing duties; Contractors working under a contract wholly or principally for their labour; Certain state and Commonwealth government contracted workers; and Those paid to perform or present any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport or other similar promotional activity. This includes people who provide services in connection with these activities or people paid in relation to film, tape, disc or television. Are contractors entitled to SG? If your contractor holds an Australian Business Number (ABN), this of itself will not prevent SG from applying. Where the arrangement looks like it is a contract for the provision of an individual’s labour and skills, it is likely they will meet the definition of an employee and SG will be payable. The SG rules state if, “a person works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person, the person is an employee of the other party to the contract.” This definition is alarming to many employers as the rate paid to contractors, and often the terms of the agreement, factor in an uplift for super guarantee and other entitlements that would normally be paid if the person was an employee. But for SG purposes, it does not matter what the contract says, if the person is deemed to be an employee under the rules, they are entitled to SG and the employer is obligated to pay it. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) states that SG needs to be paid to contractors if you pay them: under a verbal or written contract that is mainly for their labour (more than half the dollar value of the contract is for their labour) for their personal labour and skills (payment isn't dependent on achieving a specified result) to perform the contract work (work cannot be delegated to someone else). In a recent ruling , the ATO says that where the worker is required to use a substantial capital asset (such as a truck) this will help in arguing that the contract is not mainly for the labour of the worker, but this will always depend on the facts. Are directors paid SG? Yes. Directors (members of executive bodies of bodies corporate) should be paid SG if they are remunerated for performing duties for the company. Entertainers, performers and sportspeople Generally, if a performer operates through a company, trust, or partnership then there is not an employment relationship and SG is not payable. However, individual artists, performers and sportspeople are captured as employees under the SG rules ( section 12(8 )) where they are paid to: perform or present, or to participate in the performance or presentation of, any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport, display or promotional activity or any similar activity involving the exercise of intellectual, artistic, musical, physical or other personal skills; provide services in connection with an activity referred to above; perform services in, or in connection with, the making of any film, tape or disc or of any television or radio broadcast. Whoever is paying the individual for their labour, is generally responsible for the payment of that individual’s SG. For example, a music festival operator that contracts a sole trader to perform at a festival might be liable for SG for that performer. Likewise, if the sole trader contracts band members to perform with them at the festival, then the sole trader is responsible for the SG of the band members. If however, the music festival worked with an agency to supply the performers (the music festival pays the agency, the agency pays the performers), then the agency is likely to be responsible for the SG of the artists if there is a liability. If the agency only charges a booking fee and the festival pays the performers directly, then the festival is likely to be responsible for the performer’s SG. You can see from this how important it is to determine who meets the definition of an employee for SG purposes, and if so, to understand the parties to the deemed employment relationship. What’s a service “in connection to” The definition of an employee for SG purposes captures workers who work with performers, for example individuals that are producers, videographers, editors, etc. If the person meets the definition of an employee under the SG rules, then it is likely SG is payable. Is a gym instructor a sportsperson? A gym instructor may be captured under the definition of a deemed employee under the SG rules. Whether the gym is liable to pay the instructor SG really depends on the facts of the individual arrangement. Let’s look at the example of a gym instructor operating as a sole trader under an ABN. There is a contract between the instructor and the gym stating that the instructor is an independent contractor and is responsible for their own SG payments and other employment obligations. The instructor is paid per class, and per training session with clients, covering their time and labour. The instructor utilises the equipment of the gym and its scheduling system. The instructor wears the uniform of the gym. The instructor is trained by the gym in how to deliver the services of the gym.  Employee? Most likely because the ATO places a heavy significance on whether an individual is working to build their own business or someone else’s. If the instructor “..works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person” then this also brings them into the SG net. If the employer, the gym, had not been paying SG, is it exposed to SG payments for the instructor since the employment relationship began.
Federal Budget 2025-26: what it means for your small business
By Clarke McEwan March 29, 2025
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivered the Federal Budget on 25 March. But what’s in the Budget for small business owners? We’ve got the lowdown on the main opportunities. #FederalBudget #Budget #businesstips
By Clarke McEwan March 21, 2025
As your accountant, we won't just look after the financial side of your business, we can also advise you on the strategic side of your company, including the importance of business development as vital part of your growth plan. Business development (BD) is what helps your company move from slow, organic growth to fast-paced, hypergrowth. And it’s only by putting the right drive and expertise behind your BD that you can turn your strategic ideas into real success stories. So, how can we help you achieve this? Talk to you about your strategic goals The starting point for any kind of BD activity is to pin down your goals and aims as a business. When you know what you want to achieve over the coming months, it’s far easier to define a strategy for success. And that’s easier to do when you talk to an objective adviser, like us. We can sit in on your board meetings, talk to your executive team and get a real handle on what makes the business tick. And, armed with this knowledge, we’ll work with you to drive the direction of your BD and find the best opportunities for you to focus on. Help you create a clear BD strategy and plan Having a defined set of BD goals is a good starting point. But to put this all into action in a productive way, you’re going to need a comprehensive plan for your BD projects. Our years of experience advising business leaders and their teams really comes into play here. We know the best routes to take, the budgets that will be needed and the right tactics for bringing in more contracts, sales and partnerships. By putting these strategies into a clear plan, and linking this to agreed timescales, you have a BD route map to follow and action. Introduce you to a broader network of business partners We work with a wide range of businesses across many different sectors, industries and niches. By introducing you to our network of clients, we welcome you into a supportive community of like-minded business owners. And that’s excellent news when looking for new partnerships. Whether it’s attending a local conference, an online webinar or one of our in-house client events, you’re going to meet new people, share new ideas and make the right connections. This is a great way to build alliances and work together with other local businesses. And when you’re well-connected, you set the very best foundations for your future BD activity. Provide better routes to funding and investment Whatever goals you’ve set for your BD projects, it’s likely that you’re going to need additional funding to finance this activity. Investing in your expansion, or new partnerships, is vital to getting a good return on your BD, so great access to finance is a definite bonus. We’ll advise you on the most appropriate funding channels and how you can use these facilities to finance your BD plans. And we can also link you up with banks, lenders and business finance specialists – so you get the advice and finance you need to bring your BD to life. Help you track and measure your BD performance Meeting your BD targets takes time – and a whole lot of dedication. Measuring your BD performance over time, helps you stay on track and gives you a good indication of how well you’re tracking against your planned progress. We’ll help you create the reporting and metrics you need, so you have clear data to track your progress over time. You can log your activity in your project management system, or your client relationship management (CRM) software, and keep clear notes on contacts made, relationships built and targets converted etc. If you want to get more from your BD, please do get in touch. We’ll partner with you to put some real drive, experience and impetus behind your BD strategies.
More Posts