The Economy in 2026 - What it might look like

Clarke McEwan Accountants

The economy in 2026 - 6 possible transformations for Australia

By imagining for a few minutes that the year is 2026, we can get a better idea of how the Australian economy might evolve. Here six economists speculate on how the economy might change in the decade after 2016.

INTHEBLACK asked six leading economists to exercise their imaginations and invent a story of what Australia's economic evolution might look like by 2026. They invented economic environments with elements that we can already see, but with huge changes to jobs, businesses, cities and international relations.

Here, then, are six thought-provoking visions of possible economic changes ahead, each addressing a different element of the economy.

Automation, looking back from 2026 - Shane Oliver

In the past decade hundreds of thousands of jobs have disappeared in transport, professional services, manufacturing, government and other sectors as machines have taken over repetitive tasks.

In the past, such transformations occurred over decades, giving displaced businesses and workers time to adjust, and the technologies that have driven the process have given rise to new industries.

Shane Oliver

Shane Oliver

However, AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says the decade to 2026 has been different. The rapid speed of change has been traumatic for many - old jobs have been destroyed at a much faster pace than new ones have been created.

This has caused a growing gulf between those in well-paid jobs, immune to automation, and the rest.

With less disposable income around, economic growth has slowed and social tensions are increasing. There are growing demands for the government to use the tax and welfare systems to even the spread of income, and people are loudly advocating a shift to a four-day week to share jobs.

All is not gloom, however. Cafes, tourism operators, gyms, gene therapy clinics and other personal service providers are prospering, and new jobs and businesses are appearing all the time. Despite this, the period of dislocation has been painful for many.

The workplace, looking back from 2026 - Deborah Cobb-Clark

The plunge in office rents and property prices that began in 2021 shows little sign of letting up as the days of the corporate head office appear increasingly numbered.

Deborah Cobb-Clark

Deborah Cobb-Clark

While a core of employees continue to work in the same physical space, for years now a growing proportion has been taking advantage of advances in communications technology to work from remote locations - homes, shared office spaces and even cafes with dedicated work areas.

University of Sydney professor of economics Deborah Cobb-Clark, who anticipated this development a decade ago in 2016, says this, combined with the increasing automation of many jobs, is transforming the way we live and work.

People have more leisure time as their workload shrinks and an increasing number are freed from having to undertake the daily commute.

The new model of work is changing the structure and purpose of cities. Increasingly, the CBD as a work destination is a relic of the past and the "peak hour" pressure on transport networks is receding. People still flock to cities, but mostly for their amenity and social life rather than work.

Population ageing, looking back from 2026 - Stephen Koukoulas

Having already helped to usher in land taxes in the states, the Federal Government is now facing an even tougher political fight over plans to increase the retirement age to 70 years, introduce death duties and establish a HECS-style scheme for the aged pension.

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics says there is little choice. "It is a matter of dollars and cents," he says. "Community expectations are that the provision of services be held to a high level, and that is very expensive."

The nation's swelling ranks of retirees are driving ever-increasing demands for health care, community services and income support. The burden of this cost is falling on a shrinking share of working-age Australians.

The situation has called for radical solutions, and the government is now contemplating measures that 10 years ago would have been considered unthinkable - including a progressive scale of death duties and a "reverse-HECS" for pensions, under which a means-tested proportion of the welfare payments claimed by recipients are reimbursed to the government from their estate when they die.

"People want a decent level of government-provided services," Koukoulas says, "but without some serious action, there is a real risk of it becoming unaffordable."

Productivity, looking back from 2026 - Mardi Dungey

Australia's biggest economic achievement of the past decade has been to solve the conundrum of chronically low productivity.

Mardi Dungey

Mardi Dungey

By breaking down rigidities in the way work is conceived and structured, University of Tasmania professor of economics and finance Mardi Dungey says the nation has tapped into a rich pool of labour and expertise among those who in the past have been systematically excluded from the workforce, such as those with disabilities and chronic medical conditions.

By relaxing time constraints and instead conceiving jobs in terms of outcomes, the nation has opened up a swathe of opportunities for those who might take longer to complete a task, but can deliver results at least the equal of able-bodied workers.

Innovations like e-lancing and a more sophisticated approach to measuring production, particularly in the services, have helped drive the transformation.

Deflation, looking back from 2026 - Nicholas Gruen

Almost 20 years on from the global financial crisis, the Australian economy, like that of much of the developed world, continues to struggle to get out of second gear.

While Australia's record of 35 years of unbroken growth is remarkable, Lateral Economics principal Nicholas Gruen says there is little to celebrate from the last 10 years. The dark cloud of economic stagnation that settled over Europe in the wake of the GFC has spread Down Under.

Nicholas Gruen

The tough medicine policies forced on Europe's debtor nations (Italy, Spain, Greece) by Germany stoked deflationary forces that quelled growth there, and a similar dynamic has gripped Australia. Central banks around the world, including in Australia, have struggled in vain to lift the inflation rate.

Most workers have not had a real pay rise in years, and housing costs are claiming an increasing share of income, leaving fewer dollars left over for shopping and personal services. In turn, soft turnover has given firms little reason to hire more staff or make substantial investments.

In the past decade, annual growth has averaged 2.5 to 3 per cent, rather than 3 to 3.75 per cent. The result, says Gruen, has been to make the country 5 per cent poorer than it would otherwise have been.

Instead of acting to break out of this rut, successive governments have been complacent. "Now our unemployment rate is higher than the United Kingdom and the US, and there is no sense of urgency, or that something is seriously wrong," says Gruen. "It is a story of the great Australian complacency."

China's hard landing, looking back from 2026 - Saul Eslake

In the decade since 2016 the country has endured slowing population growth, a continued decline in the terms of trade and productivity, and an end to booming house prices. Yet the biggest shock has come from the liquidity crisis that crippled China's financial system.

Saul Eslake

The warning signs were already appearing in the middle of the last decade, says independent economist Saul Eslake, when the country's banking system developed some of the worrying characteristics of the American banking system before the global financial crisis hit.

"The GFC was not primarily caused by a huge increase in bad mortgage loans, but by a wholesale run on funds tied up in securities," Eslake said at the time.

"China's banking system has taken on some of that character. China's banking system has become much more dependent on the types of funding [securities] that brought down the Western banking system [in the GFC]," he adds.

The Asian country's massive foreign exchange reserves, worth around US$3 trillion, were of little help in what became a solvency crisis. For Australia, whose trade dependency on one nation was greater than at any time since the 1950s, the economic consequences have been severe.

By Clarke McEwan May 5, 2025
The ATO has updated its small business benchmarks with the latest data taken from the 2022–23 financial year. These benchmarks cover 100 industries and allow small businesses to compare their performance, including turnover and expenses, against others in their industry. While the ATO doesn’t use the benchmarks in isolation, small businesses who fall outside the ATO’s benchmarks are more likely to trigger a closer examination from the ATO. The ATO uses information reported in business tax return with key performance benchmarks for the relevant industry to identify potential tax risks. Aside from determining the risk of unwanted attention from the ATO, the benchmarks can also be used to compare your business performance against other businesses in the same industry. The benchmarks could help you spot areas where you might be able to reduce costs or improve efficiency. The small business benchmarks can be accessed here . Aside from the small business benchmarks, the ATO also has a business viability assessment tool which can help business owners identify whether there are any obvious financial risks. The ATO consider a business to be viable if it is generating sufficient profits to meet commitments to creditors and provide a return to the business owners. If a business isn’t generating profits, the ATO looks at whether the business has sufficient cash reserves to sustain itself. The business viability assessment tool can be found here . Please let us know if you would like us to review your business performance and make recommendations on ways that performance could be improved.
By Clarke McEwan May 5, 2025
As the urban sprawl continues in most major Australian cities, we are often asked to advise on the tax treatment of subdivision projects. Before jumping in and committing to anything, it is important to understand the tax liabilities that might arise from these projects. Unfortunately, many people make incorrect assumptions about the way that subdivision projects will be taxed, often believing that any tax exposure will be minimal. However, the reality is that there are a number of important issues that need to be considered and that could have a significant impact on the overall profitability of the project. For example, when someone buys a property with the intention of subdividing it into smaller lots and selling them at a profit in the short term this will normally mean that any profit is taxed as ordinary income, rather than being taxed under the CGT rules. This means that the general CGT discount would not be available to reduce the tax liability, even if the property has been held for more than 12 months and it would not be possible to apply capital losses to reduce the taxable amount. Also, in situations like this the sale of the subdivided lots will often trigger a GST liability, further reducing any after-tax profits generated from the project. Many people fail to properly estimate the income tax and GST liabilities that will arise from property projects and can end up with a nasty shock when they realise the impact this has on the economic viability of the project. The ATO has recently updated its guidance in this area, adding a number of new and practical examples to demonstrate how the tax rules will typically apply. The ATO’s examples cover the income tax and GST consequences of common property transactions such as property flipping, subdivision projects and property development activities. For example, in one of the examples the ATO looks at a scenario where the taxpayer repeatedly buys, renovates, and sells properties. They engage in market research, seeking professional advice, taking out business loans, and then carrying out renovations in a business-like manner. The ATO takes the view that the taxpayer is running a business, since the taxpayer’s primary intention is to make a profit from the renovations and reselling of the property. The profits are treated as ordinary income and taxed on revenue account. The CGT provisions don’t apply here since the property is held as trading stock. However, GST doesn’t apply on this particular situation as long as the properties have not undergone “substantial renovations”, which needs to be considered carefully. On the other hand, in another example the ATO deals with a taxpayer who subdivides the vacant land from their main residence because of ill health and growing debt levels. Since they didn’t initially intend to profit from the subdivision and sale of the vacant land, the sale is viewed as the mere realisation of a capital asset rather than a business venture. The activities related to the subdivision are limited to necessary actions for council approval, reflecting a low level of complexity and small scale. The sale of the subdivided lot is taxed on capital account under the CGT rules, qualifying for the general CGT discount if the land has been held for more than 12 months. However, the main residence exemption cannot apply because the land is not being sold together with the dwelling that has been used as the taxpayer’s main residence. You can find the ATO’s guide and examples here .
By Clarke McEwan May 5, 2025
It has been a long time coming, but the Government finally passed legislation increasing the instant asset write-off threshold for the year ending 30 June 2025 to $20,000. This was announced back in the 2024-25 Federal Budget but the Government faced a number of hurdles in terms of passing the legislation. This basically means that individuals and entities who carry on a business with turnover of less than $10m can often claim an immediate deduction for the cost of depreciating assets (eg, plant and equipment) that are acquired during the 2025 financial year as long as the cost of the asset, ignoring GST credits that can be claimed, is less than $20,000. If you are thinking about purchasing an asset before 30 June 2025 with the hope of claiming an immediate deduction, then please reach out to us to confirm the position. The rules contain a number of tricks and traps which we can help you to navigate. The threshold is due to drop back to $1,000 from 1 July 2025 unless further legislation is passed to provide another temporary increase to the threshold or a permanent modification.
By Clarke McEwan May 5, 2025
With the end of the financial year fast approaching we outline some opportunities to maximise your deductions and give you the low down on areas at risk of increased ATO scrutiny. Opportunities Bolstering superannuation If growing your superannuation is a strategy you are pursuing, and your total superannuation balance allows it, you could make a one-off deductible contribution to your superannuation if you have not used your $30,000 cap. This cap includes superannuation guarantee paid by your employer, amounts you have salary sacrificed into super and any amounts you have contributed personally that will be claimed as a tax deduction. If your total superannuation balance on 30 June 2024 was below $500,000 you might be able to access any unused concessional cap amounts from the last five years in 2024-25 as a personal contribution. For example, if you were $8,000 under the cap in each of the last 5 years, you could contribute an additional $40,000 and take the tax deduction in this financial year at your personal tax rate. To make a deductible contribution to your superannuation, you need to be aged under 75, lodge a notice of intent to claim a deduction in the approved form (check with your superannuation fund), and receive an acknowledgement from your fund before you lodge your tax return. For those aged between 67 and 74, you can only claim a deduction on a personal contribution to super if you meet the work test (i.e., work at least 40 hours during a consecutive 30-day period in the income year, although some special exemptions might apply). If your spouse’s assessable income is less than $37,000 and you both meet the eligibility criteria, you could contribute to their superannuation and claim a $540 tax offset. If you are likely to face a tax bill this year and you made a capital gain on shares or property you sold, then making a larger personal superannuation contribution might help to offset the tax you owe. Charitable donations When you donate money (or sometimes property) to a registered deductible gift recipient (DGR), you can claim amounts of $2 and above as a tax deduction. The more tax you pay, the more valuable the tax deductible donation is to you. For example, a $10,000 donation to a DGR can create a $3,250 deduction for someone earning up to $120,000 but $4,500 to someone earning $180,000 or more (excluding Medicare levy). To be deductible, the donation must be a gift and not in exchange for something. Special rules apply for amounts relating to charity auctions and fundraising events run by a DGR. Philanthropic giving can be undertaken in a number of different ways. Rather than providing gifts to a specific charity, it might be worth exploring the option of giving to a public ancillary fund or setting up a private ancillary fund. Donations made to these funds can often qualify for an immediate deduction, with the fund then investing and managing the money over time. The fund generally needs to distribute a certain portion of its net assets to DGRs each year. Investment property owners If you do not have one already, a depreciation schedule is a report that helps you calculate deductions for the natural wear and tear over time on your investment property. Depending on your property, it might help to maximise your deductions. Risks Work from home expenses Working from home is a normal part of life for many workers, and while you can’t claim the cost of your morning coffee, biscuits or toilet paper (seriously, people have tried), you can claim certain additional expenses you incur. But, work from home expenses are an area of ATO scrutiny. There are two methods of claiming your work from home expenses; the short-cut method, and the actual method. The short-cut method allows you to claim a fixed rate of 70c for every hour you work from home for the year ending 30 June 2025. This covers your energy expenses (electricity and gas), internet expenses, mobile and home phone expenses, and stationery and computer consumables such as ink and paper. To use this method, it’s essential that you keep a record of the actual days and times you work from home because the ATO has stated that they will not accept estimates. The alternative is to claim the actual expenses you have incurred on top of your normal running costs for working from home. You will need copies of your expenses, and your diary for at least 4 continuous weeks that represents your typical work pattern. Landlords beware If you own an investment property, a key concept to understand is that you can only claim a deduction for expenses you incurred in the course of earning income. That is, the property normally needs to be rented or genuinely available for rent to claim the expenses. Sounds obvious but taxpayers claiming investment property expenses when the property was being used by family or friends, taken off the market for some reason or listed for an unreasonable rental rate, is a major focus for the ATO, particularly if your property is in a holiday hotspot. There are a series of issues the ATO is actively pursuing this tax season. These include: • Refinancing and redrawing loans – you can normally claim interest on the amount borrowed for the rental property as a deduction. However, where any part of the loan relates to personal expenses, or where part of the loan has been refinanced to free up cash for your personal needs (school fees, holidays etc.,), then the loan expenses need to be apportioned and only that portion that relates to the rental property can be claimed. The ATO matches data from financial institutions to identify taxpayers who are claiming more than they should for interest expenses. • The difference between repairs and maintenance and capital improvements – while repairs and maintenance costs can often be claimed immediately, a deduction for capital works is generally spread over a number of years. Repairs and maintenance expenses must relate directly to the wear and tear resulting from the property being rented out and generally involve restoring the property back to its previous state, for example, replacing damaged palings of a fence. You cannot claim repairs required when you first purchased the property. Capital works however, such as structural improvements to the property, are normally deducted at 2.5% of the construction cost for 40 years from the date construction was completed. Where you replace an entire asset, like a hot water system, this is a depreciating asset and the deduction is claimed over time (different rates and time periods apply to different assets). • Co-owned property – rental income and expenses must normally be claimed according to your legal interest in the property. Joint tenant owners must claim 50% of the expenses and income, and tenants in common according to their legal ownership percentage. It does not matter who actually paid for the expenses. Gig economy income It’s essential that any income (including money, appearance fees, and ‘gifts’) earned from platforms such as Airbnb, Stayz, Uber, YouTube, etc., is declared in your tax return. The tax rules consider that you have earned the income “as soon as it is applied or dealt with in any way on your behalf or as you direct”. If you are a content creator for example, this is when your account is credited, not when you direct the money to be paid to your personal or business account. Squirrelling it away from the ATO in your platform account won’t protect you from paying tax on it. Since 1 July 2023, the platforms delivering ridesourcing, taxi travel, and short-term accommodation (under 90 days), have been required to report transactions made through their platform to the ATO under the sharing economy reporting regime so expect the ATO to utilise data matching activities to identify unreported income. Other sharing economy platforms have been required to start reporting from 1 July 2024. If you have income you have not declared, do it now before the ATO discover it and apply penalties and interest. For your business Opportunities Write-off bad debts Your customer definitely not going to pay you? If all attempts have failed, the debt can be written off by 30 June to claim a deduction this year. Ensure you document the fact that you have written off the bad debt on your debtor’s ledger or with a minute. Obsolete plant & equipment If your business has obsolete plant and equipment sitting on your depreciation schedule, instead of depreciating a small amount each year, scrap it and write it off before 30 June if you don’t use it anymore. For companies If it makes sense to do so, bring forward tax deductions by committing to pay directors’ fees and employee bonuses (by resolution), and paying June quarter super contributions in June. Risks Tax debt and not meeting reporting obligations Failing to lodge returns is a huge ‘red flag’ for the ATO that something is wrong in the business. Not lodging a tax return will not stop the debt escalating because the ATO has the power to simply issue an assessment of what they think your business owes. If your business is having trouble meeting its tax or reporting obligations, we can assist by working with the ATO on your behalf. Professional firm profits For professional services firms - architects, lawyers, accountants, medical etc., - the ATO is actively reviewing how profits flow through to the professionals involved, looking to see whether structures are in place to divert income to reduce the tax they would be expected to pay. Where professionals are not appropriately rewarded for the services they provide to the business, or they receive a reward which is substantially less than the value of those services, the ATO is likely to take action.
By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
The amount of money that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account will increase to $2m on 1 July 2025. Each year, advisers await the December inflation statistics to the be released. The reason is simple, the transfer balance cap – the amount that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account – is indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released each December. If inflation goes up, the general transfer balance cap is indexed in increments of $100,000 at the start of the financial year. In December 2024, the inflation rate triggered an increase in the cap from $1.9m to $2m. The complexity with the transfer balance cap is that each person has an individual transfer balance cap. If you have started a retirement income stream, when indexation occurs, any increase only applies to your unused transfer balance cap. Considering retiring in 2025? If you are considering retiring, either fully or partially, indexation of the transfer balance cap provides a one-off opportunity to increase the amount of money you can transfer to your tax-free retirement account. That is, if you start taking a retirement income stream for the first time in June 2025, your transfer balance cap will be $1.9m but if you wait until July 2025 your transfer balance cap will be $2m, an extra tax-free $100,000. Already taking a pension? If you are already taking a retirement income stream, indexation applies to your unused transfer balance cap - so you might not benefit from the full $100,000 increase on 1 July 2025. Where can I see what my cap is? Your superannuation fund reports the value of your superannuation interests to the ATO. You can view your personal transfer balance cap, available cap space, and transfer balance account transactions online through the ATO link in myGov . If you have a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF), it is very important that your reporting obligations are up to date.
By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
In the 2025-26 Federal Budget the Government announced a ban on non-compete clauses and “no poach” agreements. In the 2025-26 Federal Budget, the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on high incomes (under the Fair Work Act the high income threshold is currently $175,000). The reason? A recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report found that 46.9% of businesses surveyed used some kind of restraint clause, including for workers in non-executive roles. The survey also found 20.8% of businesses use non-compete clauses for at least some of their staff and 68.2% for more than three-quarters of their employees. From an economic perspective, declining job mobility impacts wage growth and innovation as restraints prevent access to skilled workers within the economy. Productivity is a key concern as Australia’s productivity has declined in the last 20 years. Treasury’s consultation paper Non-compete clauses and other restraints states that, “the direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.” A Productivity Commission report estimates the effect of limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses will be increased wages for workers - by up to up to 2.4% in industries with high use of non-compete clauses and up to 1.4% in others. Non-competes: the state of play  Non-compete clauses in Australia are generally enforced under common law. For all regions except New South Wales, restraints are generally presumed to be against the public interest and therefore void and unenforceable except where they are deemed to be reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interest of the employer1. In NSW, a restraint of trade is valid to the extent to which it is not against public policy. When non-competes are contested, the courts consider the nature and extent of the business interest to be protected (e.g., confidential client information) and whether the scope of restriction the business wants imposed is reasonable including its geographic area, time period and activities which the restraint seeks to control. Interests considered ‘legitimate’ by courts include the protection of trade secrets or other confidential information; protection against solicitation of clients with whom the former worker had a personal connection; and protection against key staff being recruited by a former colleague. An employer is not entitled to protect themselves against mere competition by a former worker . What now The ban on non-compete clauses was announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget. The Government has stated that it intends to consult on policy details, including exemptions, penalties, and transition arrangements. Following consultation and the passage of legislation, the reforms are anticipated to take effect from 2027, operating prospectively. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage about this measure, despite the enthusiasm of the Treasury economists, not least of which is the impending election. We’ll bring you more as further information is available.
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