Clarke McEwan Accountants
The property market is rarely out of the news in Australia, with regular predictions of house prices collapsing being followed by weekends of record auctions and prices.
Property has certainly had a good run. Over the past 10 years property prices in some of Australian major cities have skyrocketed and as property has become less affordable, more people are looking at a popular alternative which is to rent and invest their savings in a portfolio of shares instead.
Despite similar long-term returns, property and shares are always at different points in their own market cycles. When looking to invest for the next 5 years, it's worth thinking about where each is positioned in their own cycle and what that could mean about the future. Since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, property has been in the recovery and then boom stages, helped by low interest rates and supply shortages.
But which is better today, shares or property?
History has shown that investments are often most popular near the top of their cycle. This is when the market is hot and there is high confidence that prices will keep on rising. Silly stuff happens at the top of the cycle like was seen in the US property market in 2006-2008.
Today property investing is 3 times as popular as buying Australian shares. This shows how confident people are about real estate investment right now. High confidence around an investment often comes before periods of flat or falling prices as reality catches up to everyone's excitement. For example, US shares were at their most popular ever in 1999 – just before the infamous tech crash.
That said, confidence levels can remain elevated for a long time and it's always hard to pick the peak. Stock analysts were calling the top of the US tech boom years before it actually ended, just as many commentators have been predicting Australian house prices to fall for a decade now.
In any boom you can be sure that many people will try to pick the top but few will succeed with their timing without the benefit of hindsight!
Then there are shares, which have become less popular in recent years with only 7.8% of people surveyed thinking shares are the best place to invest, which is half the long term average.
Based on excitement levels, those who are renting and investing in shares currently have the upper hand since they're likely to be investing at a better point in the cycle. Australian shares are still below the levels they reached 10 years ago in 2007 so they are still in the recovery stage.
People who are renting and investing their extra savings in shares are able to quietly squirrel away savings and pay low rents while everyone else is jumping over each other to buy a house. But patience is a virtue for those renting since the strongest temptation to get involved in an investment usually comes around the top when everyone else is most excited. That's when FOMO (fear of missing out) is at its hardest to resist.
All markets move in cycles. It's tempting to get involved when confidence and excitement are high, but doing what's less popular can be the safer and smarter bet in anticipation of when returns inevitably go back to normal.
For more points to ponder on renting vs. buying... visit the article Shares Vs Property further down this page where we discuss the returns of shares vs. property.
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