What’s ahead in 2025?

Clarke McEwan Accountants

What’s ahead in 2025?

The last few years have been a rollercoaster ride of instability. 2025 holds hope, but not a guarantee, of greater stability and certainty. We explore some of the key changes and challenges.

An election

Welcome to political advertising slipping into your social media, voicemail, and television viewing - most likely with messages from the opposition asking if you are better off, and from the incumbents telling you all the reasons why you are.

The 2025-26 Federal Budget has been brought forward to 25 March 2025. This suggests an election will be held in either March or May 2025 but no later than 17 May 2025.

Legislation in limbo

The Senate pushed through 32 Bills on the final sitting day of parliament for 2024 including seven of direct relevance to business and to the financial interests of some Australians. However, two key announcements remain in limbo:

$3m tax on earnings in a superannuation fund
The proposed Division 296 tax, which imposes a 30% tax rate on future earnings for superannuation balances above $3 million, is proposed to commence from 1 July 2025. The Bill enabling the new tax is stalled in the Senate. It’s unlikely that this tax will pass parliament prior to the election; at which point, the Bill lapses. It then becomes a question of whether the elected Government chooses to rectify the concept or let it fade into oblivion as a bad idea.

$20,000 instant asset write-off for small business
In the 2024-25 Federal Budget, the government announced the extension of the $20,000 instant asset write-off threshold for small business for a further year to 2024-25. The concession enables businesses with an aggregated turnover of less than $10 million to immediately deduct the full cost of eligible depreciating assets costing less than $20,000. Without this measure, the threshold returns to $1,000. This concession was removed by amendment from the enabling legislation at the last minute in the final sitting of Parliament of 2024. The removal of this measure is unfortunate, as once again, SMEs now have no confidence about the tax treatment of investments in assets that they might be looking to make, or have made, in the current financial year.

Tax & super changes

Foreign resident capital gains withholding changes on sale of property

One of the Bills pushed through Parliament at the end of 2024 changes how capital gains withholding applies to foreign residents from 1 January 2025.

Currently, residents selling taxable Australian property must provide a clearance certificate to the purchaser at or before settlement to avoid having 12.5% withheld from a property sale where the value of the property is $750,000 or more. If applicable, the withholding is then made available as a credit against any tax liability. The vendor only receives any refund due after their next income tax return is processed at tax time.

From 1 January 2025 however, the threshold will be removed and the withholding rate increased so that:

The withholding is increased from 12.5% to 15%; and
The withholding applies to the sale of all Australian land and buildings by foreign residents, regardless of the value of the assets.

The reforms apply to acquisitions made on or after 1 January 2025.

Superannuation rate increases to 12%

The Superannuation Guarantee (SG) rate will rise from 11.5% to 12% on 1 July 2025 - the final legislated increase.

Super on Paid Parental Leave

From 1 July 2025, superannuation will be paid on Paid Parental Leave payments. Eligible parents will receive an additional payment based on the superannuation guarantee (i.e. 12% of their PPL payments), as a contribution to their superannuation fund.

Interest rates

At the last Reserve Bank Board (RBA) meeting, RBA governor Michele Bullock recognised the easing of headline inflation from 5.4% to 2.8% over the year to September 2024 but suggested that the economy still has some way to go before inflation is sustainably within the 2% to 3% target range. The RBA appears wary of volatility and wants to see inflation sustainably trending down before making any move. Commbank is predicting a February 2025 rate cut, ANZ and Westpac May 2025, and NAB June 2025.

Cost of living pressures

The National Accounts released in early December took economists by surprise with living standards growing by a mere 0.2% in the September quarter – the expectation was much higher. Discretionary spending only increased by 0.1%.

The personal income tax cuts that came into effect from 1 July 2024 helped households, as did energy subsidies, but the impact is still working its way through the system. At the same time, mortgage costs continue to rise as past increases continue to impact.

Through the year, Australia’s economy grew 0.8%, the lowest rate since the COVID-19 affected December quarter 2020. Economic activity in the Australian economy right now is heavily dependent on Government spending.

Slow and steady is the expectation for 2025.

The ‘Trump effect’

President-elect Trump will recite his oath of office on 20 January 2025. The Trump administration will hold the presidency, Senate and the House.

For Australia, the question is the likely impact of some of President-elect Trump’s stated policy objectives including the imposition of tariffs. On social media, Trump has said:

“…as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.”
“…we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.” This in response to claims that China is responsible for massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl being sent into the US.

The issue for Australia is the secondary impact of a trade war. China is Australia's largest two-way trading partner, accounting for 26% of our goods and services trade with the world in 2023. A slowdown in the Chinese economy impacts Australia and the region generally.

An immediate impact of the idea of a trade war has been the decline of the AUD/USD, currently sitting at around 64c.

Fuel efficient cars

New standards for vehicle manufacturers come into effect from 1 January 2025. Vehicle manufacturers will have a set average CO2 target for all new cars they produce, which they must meet or beat. The target will be reduced over time and car companies must provide more choices of fuel-efficient, low or zero emissions vehicles.

Suppliers can still sell any type of vehicle they choose but with more fuel-efficient models offsetting any less efficient models. If suppliers meet or beat their target, they'll receive credits. If they don’t, they will have two years to either trade credits with a different supplier, or generate credits themselves, before a penalty becomes payable.

Wage theft criminalised

As of 1 January 2025, the intentional underpayment of workers will be criminalised.

Employers will commit an offence if:

they’re required to pay an amount to an employee (such as wages), or on behalf of or for the benefit of an employee (such as superannuation) under the Fair Work Act, or an industrial instrument; and
they intentionally engage in conduct that results in their failure to pay those amounts to or for the employee on or before the day they’re due to be paid.

Employers convicted of wage theft face fines of up to 3 times the amount of the underpayment and $7.825 million.

Phasing out cheques

The Government has announced a transition plan to phase out the use of cheques. Under the plan, cheques will stop being issued by 30 June 2028 and stop being accepted on 30 September 2029.

The use of cheques has declined dramatically over the last 10 years, declining by around 90%. In response, banks have stopped issuing chequebooks to new customers. However, financial institutions have a legislated requirement to accept cheques until the Government no longer requires them to do so.

Danish banks stopped accepting cheques in 2017 and New Zealand's banks in 2021.

Cheques out but cash remains king

While Australians have moved to digital payment methods, the Government has been careful to maintain cash as a payment method.

Around 1.5 million Australians use cash to make more than 80% of their in‑person payments. Cash also provides an easily accessible back‑up to digital payments in times of natural disaster or digital outage.

According to the most recent data, up to 94% of businesses continue to accept cash.

The Government has stated that they will mandate that businesses must accept cash when selling essential items, with appropriate exemptions for small businesses.

Currently, businesses don’t have to accept cash – business can specify the terms and conditions that they will supply goods and services.

The issue of card surcharges often comes up when a business adds a surcharge rather than recognising this cost of doing business in their pricing. A business can charge a surcharge for paying by card, but the surcharge must not be more than what it costs the business to use that payment type.

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Federal Budget 2025-26: what it means for your small business

By Clarke McEwan • March 29, 2025

The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivered the Federal Budget on 25 March. But what’s in the Budget for small business owners? We’ve got the lowdown on the main opportunities. #FederalBudget #Budget #businesstips

How your accountant supports business development

By Clarke McEwan • March 21, 2025

As your accountant, we won't just look after the financial side of your business, we can also advise you on the strategic side of your company, including the importance of business development as vital part of your growth plan. Business development (BD) is what helps your company move from slow, organic growth to fast-paced, hypergrowth. And it’s only by putting the right drive and expertise behind your BD that you can turn your strategic ideas into real success stories. So, how can we help you achieve this? Talk to you about your strategic goals The starting point for any kind of BD activity is to pin down your goals and aims as a business. When you know what you want to achieve over the coming months, it’s far easier to define a strategy for success. And that’s easier to do when you talk to an objective adviser, like us. We can sit in on your board meetings, talk to your executive team and get a real handle on what makes the business tick. And, armed with this knowledge, we’ll work with you to drive the direction of your BD and find the best opportunities for you to focus on. Help you create a clear BD strategy and plan Having a defined set of BD goals is a good starting point. But to put this all into action in a productive way, you’re going to need a comprehensive plan for your BD projects. Our years of experience advising business leaders and their teams really comes into play here. We know the best routes to take, the budgets that will be needed and the right tactics for bringing in more contracts, sales and partnerships. By putting these strategies into a clear plan, and linking this to agreed timescales, you have a BD route map to follow and action. Introduce you to a broader network of business partners We work with a wide range of businesses across many different sectors, industries and niches. By introducing you to our network of clients, we welcome you into a supportive community of like-minded business owners. And that’s excellent news when looking for new partnerships. Whether it’s attending a local conference, an online webinar or one of our in-house client events, you’re going to meet new people, share new ideas and make the right connections. This is a great way to build alliances and work together with other local businesses. And when you’re well-connected, you set the very best foundations for your future BD activity. Provide better routes to funding and investment Whatever goals you’ve set for your BD projects, it’s likely that you’re going to need additional funding to finance this activity. Investing in your expansion, or new partnerships, is vital to getting a good return on your BD, so great access to finance is a definite bonus. We’ll advise you on the most appropriate funding channels and how you can use these facilities to finance your BD plans. And we can also link you up with banks, lenders and business finance specialists – so you get the advice and finance you need to bring your BD to life. Help you track and measure your BD performance Meeting your BD targets takes time – and a whole lot of dedication. Measuring your BD performance over time, helps you stay on track and gives you a good indication of how well you’re tracking against your planned progress. We’ll help you create the reporting and metrics you need, so you have clear data to track your progress over time. You can log your activity in your project management system, or your client relationship management (CRM) software, and keep clear notes on contacts made, relationships built and targets converted etc. If you want to get more from your BD, please do get in touch. We’ll partner with you to put some real drive, experience and impetus behind your BD strategies.

Ban on foreign property purchases

By Clarke McEwan • March 13, 2025

The Government has announced a temporary ban on investors buying established homes between 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2027. The measure aims to curb foreign “land banking.” From 1 April 2025, foreign investors (including temporary residents and foreign-owned companies) will be prohibited from acquiring established dwellings unless they qualify for specific exemptions. While exemptions exist, they are limited. In addition, foreign investors purchasing vacant land will be required to meet development conditions that require the land to be used productively within a reasonable timeframe.

Trade wars and tariffs

By Clarke McEwan • March 13, 2025

Global Google searches for the word “tariffs” spiked dramatically between 30 January and 2 February 2025, a +900% increase to the previous 12 months. We look at what tariffs really mean. Who pays for tariffs? Tariffs increase the price of imported goods and reduce trade flows of that good or service. Traditionally used to protect specific domestic industries by reducing competition, tariffs increase the price of foreign competitors and reduce demand. In his first term, President Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium (which Australia managed to reduce to zero with supply limits imposed instead). The impact was reportedly a 2.4% increase in the price of aluminium and 1.6% increase in the price of steel in the domestic US market. The cost of tariffs is not borne by overseas suppliers but indirectly through a reduction in trade and domestically through higher prices, particularly where those goods and services are common. For the US however, the negative impact of tariffs will be felt less abruptly than many of its trading partners as trade only represents around 24% of US gross domestic product (GDP) – whereas trade accounts for 67% of Canda’s GDP. Where we are at with US trade tariffs While talking to shock jock Joe Rogan during his election campaign, Donald Trump stated, “this country can become rich with the proper use of tariffs.” In his second week of office, President Trump used emergency powers to curb the “extraordinary threat” of illegal aliens, drugs and fentanyl into the US, by imposing the following tariffs : · Canada - 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada (except energy resources that have a reduced 10% additional tariff). Canada responded by imposing its own 25% tariffs on a range of predominantly agricultural products and household goods. Canada is a trading nation and exports represent two-thirds of its GDP. In 2023, the US represented 77% of Canada’s total goods export. · Mexico - 25% additional tariff on imports from Mexico . Mexico has responded with its own 25% tariff on US goods. · China - 20% additional tariff on imports from China. The US trade deficit was over $900bn in 2024 of which China accounts for around $270bn. The additional tariff on postal shipments from China to the US has since been temporarily suspended for items with a value under $800 until the US postal service is able to collect the tariff. China’s response has been to impose additional tariffs on certain US imports including a targeted 15% tariff on agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, and a 10% tariff on fruit, vegetables, dairy products, pork, beef and sorghum. Export controls have been placed on some critical minerals. In addition, China has filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization. Industry specific tariffs and investigations · Steel imports – from 12 March 2025, the original 25% steel tariff is set to resume without the bi-lateral agreements reached over time with many nations including Australia watering down the tariff. · Copper imports – while no actions on tariffs, the President has ordered an investigation into the threat to security of copper imports . · Imports of timber, lumber products – while no action or impositions as yet, the President has ordered an investigation into the threat to security of imports of timber, lumber and derivative products such as paper. · US tech giants – it seems that the President is concerned by digital services taxes (DST) imposed on US technology companies and has vowed to respond with tariffs and other measures. Australia does not impose a DST and instead is aligned to the OECD reforms of digital taxing rights. Will Australia face US tariffs on other goods? Australia has a large trade surplus with the US which would normally make the imposition of tariffs less likely. However, specific industries may be impacted by product or industry based tariffs, such as steel and aluminium. The largest American imports into Australia are financial services, travel services, telecoms/ computer/ information services, royalties and trucks. Australia’s largest exports to the US are financial services, gold, sheep/goat meat, transportations services and vaccines. Impacts of trade wars on Australia Australia is impacted indirectly by demand. China is Australia's largest two-way trading partner, accounting for 26% of our goods and services trade in 2023. If Chinese demand slows as a result of a trade war, Australia’s economy will slow. But there is a pattern in President Trump’s approach to international and trade relations that suggests that an all-out trade war might not occur: a bold line or policy is stated - a statement that tells a story to the US public consistent with his election sentiments; then, wound back either partially or fully after concessions have been secured or concessions stated. For Australia, there is a risk in these policy machinations that China again agrees to reduce the US trade deficit by purchasing more from the US, potentially to the detriment of Australian suppliers. For Australian business, uncertainty and volatility is the problem. Uncertainty slows the economy and impacts business revenue while at the same time, costs may increase. For those in the business of selling product manufactured and distributed from China or through other trading partners directly impacted by tariffs, watch for more supply chain issues and potential cost increases. If the US export markets retracts, there is also a risk other trading nations look to dump their products to help offset losses.