Opinion - I could punt on bitcoin but I couldn’t invest in it!

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Once upon a time, the most asked questions I would get were, firstly, when will interest rates rise and should I fix now? Secondly, do I think there will be a house price collapse? But now all I get is bitcoin questions and it reminds me of that old line: "When the shoeshine boys talk stocks, it's time to get out of the market."

Legend has it that JFK's dad, Joseph Kennedy, exited the stock market in 1929 because he didn't want to invest with shoeshine boys and bellhops!

When it came to bitcoin and whether I wanted to punt on it, I went to the TAB website and checked out the Futures section to see what Winx's price was for next year's Cox Plate. For those who like long-run punts, it's 3/1 and Rekindling is 21/1 for the Cup!

The current bitcoin price is over $US11,000, and was $US10,000 yesterday, and while I suspect cryptocurrencies are like most things modern and seemingly illegal, think Uber, Airbnb, etc. (which seemingly break laws that incumbent rivals have to adhere to) they will be here to stay. But the bigger question is: at what price?

To buy bitcoin now is a punt and you could do OK but I'm more an expert on investment and that's why I won't invest in bitcoin at these prices.

Arguably, the greatest investor of all time is Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway and one of his foundation rules of investing is "Never invest in a business you cannot understand." He has not watered down his stock and it's now worth $285,080 this morning. Buffett made his fortune backing businesses he suspected would resonate with Americans, such as McDonald's, American Express and Gillette.

He also told us "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."

Right now, governments and central banks are at sixes and sevens about how to handle bitcoin. The CEO of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, says people who buy bitcoin are "stupid" and was criticised by experts on the cryptocurrency for not understanding it. However, to date, a lot of 'stupid' people have made money out of their punt. Be clear on this: at $11,000 bitcoin looks like a punt and not an investment.

Someone who is not stupid is Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, who says it should be "outlawed" as it "doesn't serve any socially useful function."

I was asked to explain bitcoin on my 6:45 am spot on the Talking Lifestyle radio programme today and I understand the basics of bitcoin but there are grey areas that worry me.

A Bloomberg piece out today tells us: "Bitcoin has risen by about 75 per cent since October alone, after developers agreed to cancel a technology update that threatened to split the digital currency."

What? Those 'investing' in bitcoin are in the hands of "developers"! Who in the hell are they? I can handle having my investments in the hands of central banks but I worry about investing in oil because of that rag tag mob called OPEC and the non-OPEC countries spearheaded by the likes of Russia, Sudan, Oman and Azerbaijan.

Sure, I'll invest in oil when the price gets silly and low but as it climbs, I worry about those who control the price.

I know madness could push the price of bitcoin higher and that could make me look like a luddite, scaredy cat, who has no idea but that's the problem, I don't have an idea about "developers", who apparently can split the currency!

I say good on those who have taken a punt on bitcoin and own it big time but, in good faith, I can't say this is a buy here at $11,000 but here's another point made in the Bloomberg story: "There's no agreed authority for the price of bitcoin and quotes can vary significantly across exchanges."

It's the bubble price that sounds off alarms for me and that's my job to look for flashing sirens and red flags.

"This is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes," hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz said at a cryptocurrency conference Tuesday in New York.

Novogratz, who says he began investing in bitcoin when it was at $US90, told Bloomberg he is starting a $US500 million fund because of the potential for the technology to eventually transform financial markets.

Bitcoin looks like it's here to stay but I don't think its current price is.

Extract from Switzer Daily Published Thursday, November 30, 2017

Could your business survive without you?

By Clarke McEwan • September 17, 2025
Would your business still thrive, or would it suffer a catastrophic failure if you suddenly stepped away? It’s tough to remove yourself from the day-to-day operations when you’re passionate and busy. However sudden accidents, illnesses, or family emergencies can – and will – happen and you need to be able to step back knowing your systems are robust enough to cope. Build in resilience For your business to work for you, you need to make yourself replaceable. Large corporations have plans in place to mitigate what’s known as ‘Key Person Risk’. But when you run a small entrepreneurial venture, who is the backup?  The more you can train and empower your team to perform the business’s essential daily functions without micromanagement, the closer you'll be able to enjoy a lifestyle business. Establish repeatable and scalable support infrastructure to run the daily operations and create a great team that you can lean on. Your staff need a common purpose – knowing why what they’re doing matters – as well as clear expectations around their roles. By creating a suitable work environment, where employees both individually and as a team are more efficient and likely to enjoy what they do, you’ll breathe easier knowing they have your back (and your business) in an emergency. Finally, it’s important to know what the business looks like without you. An exit strategy is often thought of as the way to end a business — which it can be — but in best practice, it’s a plan that moves a business toward long-term goals and allows a smooth transition to a new phase. That may involve re-imagining business direction or leadership, keeping financially sustainable, or pivoting for challenges. A fully formed exit strategy takes all business stakeholders, finances and operations into account and details all actions necessary to sell or close. Strong plans recognise the true value of a business and provide a foundation for future goals and new directions. Top Tips: 1. No one is irreplaceable – Challenge yourself to step away for a week. Which systems fall over? Which procedures get left hanging? Which duties get ignored? Go cold turkey as a test case for the time you may have to leave your business in the hands of others. 2. Embrace innovation – Get systems that are simple, streamlined, effective and can be used by multiple key team members. Make sure anyone can log in and see exactly what’s needed for what reason at any time. 3.Recognise the value you’re creating - A business that doesn’t rely on its owner is worth a lot more when the time comes to sell or pass the reins to someone else. Talk to our team about structuring your business to make it more reliable.

Keeping your tax and expenses in check when you are self-employed

By Clarke McEwan • September 16, 2025
Working for yourself or running your own business? Setup robust systems for expenses & tax requirements so you can focus on your important tasks. We can help take the headaches out of your business accounting. #freelancelife #taxtalk #smallbusinesstips #contractors #medicalcontractor #businesscontractors #ABN

A win for those carrying student debt

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025
20% reduction in student debt The reduction is expected to benefit more than 3 million Australians and remove over $16 billion in outstanding debt. The 20% reduction will be automatically applied to anyone with the following student loans: · HELP loans (eg, HECS-HELP, FEE-HELP, STARTUP-HELP, SA-HELP, OS-HELP) · VET Student loans · Australian Apprenticeship Support Loans · Student Start-up Loans · Student Financial Supplement Scheme. The reduction will be based on the loan balance at 1 June 2025, before indexation was applied. Indexation will only apply to the reduced balance. The ATO will apply the reduction automatically on a retrospective basis and will adjust the indexation that is applied. No action is needed from those with a student loan balance and the Government has indicated that you will be notified once the reduction has been applied. If you had a HELP debt showing on your ATO account on 1 April 2025 but you paid the debt off after 1 June 2025 then the reduction will normally trigger a credit to your HELP account. If you don’t have any other outstanding tax or other debts to the Commonwealth, then the credit should be refunded to you. The HELP debt estimator is a useful tool to get an idea of the reduction amount, please reach out if you need any help in working out eligibility. Changes to repayments The Government has also modified the way that HELP and student loan repayments operate, primarily by increasing the amount that individuals can earn before they need to make repayments. The minimum repayment threshold for the 2025-26 year is being increased from $56,156 to $67,000. The threshold was $54,435 for the 2024-25 year. Under the new repayment system an individual will only need to make a compulsory repayment for the 2025-26 year if their income is above $67,000. The repayments will be calculated only against the portion of income that is above $67,000. Repayments will still be made through the tax system and will typically be determined when tax returns are lodged with the ATO. For many people the change in the rules will mean they have more disposable income in the short term, but it will take longer to pay off student loans. The main exception to this will be when an individual chooses to make voluntary repayments.

Creating a more dynamic and resilient economy

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025
The Productivity Commission (PC) has been tasked by the Australian Government to conduct an inquiry into creating a more dynamic and resilient economy. The PC was asked to identify priority reforms and develop actionable recommendations. The PC has now released its interim report which presents some draft recommendations that are focused on two key areas: · Corporate tax reform to spur business investment · Where efficiencies could be made in the regulatory space (ie, cutting down on red tape) The interim report makes some interesting observations and key features of the draft recommendations are summarised below. Corporate tax reform The PC notes that business investment has fallen notably over the past decade and that the corporate tax system has a significant part to play in addressing this. The PC is basically suggesting that the existing corporate tax system needs to be updated to move towards a more efficient mix of taxes. The first stage of this process would involve two linked components: · Lower tax rate: businesses earning under $1 billion could have their tax rate reduced to 20%, with larger businesses still subject to a 30% rate. · New cashflow tax: a net cashflow tax of 5% should be applied to company profits. Under this system, companies would be able to fully deduct capital expenditure in the year it is incurred, encouraging investment and helping to produce a more dynamic and resilient economy. However, the new tax is expected to create an increased tax burden for companies earning over $1 billion. Cutting down on red tape The interim report notes that businesses have reported spending more time on regulatory compliance – this probably doesn’t come as a surprise to most business owners who have been forced to deal with multiple layers of government regulation. Some real world examples include windfarm approvals taking up to nine years in NSW while starting a café in Brisbane could involve up to 31 separate regulatory steps. The proposed fixes include: · The Australian Government adopting a whole-of-government statement committing to new principles and processes to drive regulation that supports economic dynamism. · Regulation should be scrutinised to ensure that its impact on growth and dynamism is more fully considered. · Public servants should be subject to enhanced expectations, making them accountable for delivering growth, competition and innovation. These are simply draft recommendations contained in an interim report so we are a long way from any of these recommendations being implemented. However, the interim report provides some insight into areas where the Government might look to make some changes to boost productivity in Australia. The PC is inviting feedback up until 15 September on the interim report before finalising its recommendations later this year.

Non-compete clauses: the next stage

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025
Back in March this year the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on higher incomes. The Government has indicated that the reforms in this area will take effect from 2027. This didn’t come as a complete surprise as the Competition Review had already published an issues paper on the topic and the PC had also issued a report indicating that limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses would have a material impact on wages for workers. Treasury has since issued a consultation paper, seeking feedback in the following key areas: · How the proposed ban on non-compete clauses should be implemented; · Whether additional reforms are required to the use of post-employment restraints, including for high-income employees; · Whether changes are needed to clarify how restrictions on concurrent employment should apply to part-time or casual employees; and · Details necessary to implement the proposed ban on no-poach and wage-fixing agreements in the Competition and Consumer Act. Treasury makes it clear that the Government is not planning to change the way the rules apply to restraints of trade outside employment arrangements (eg, on sale of a business) or change the use of confidentiality clauses in employment. If the proposed reforms end up being implemented, then this could have a direct impact on a range of employers and their workers. Existing agreements will need to be reviewed and potentially updated. However, it is too early at the moment to guess how this will end up, we will keep you up to date as further information becomes available.

Superannuation guarantee: due dates and considerations for employees and employers

By Clarke McEwan • September 9, 2025
On 1 July 2025 the superannuation guarantee rate increased to 12% which is the final stage of a series of previously legislated increases. Employers currently need to make superannuation guarantee (SG) contributions for their employees by 28 days after the end of each quarter (28 October, 28 January, 28 April and 28 July). There is an extra day’s allowance when these dates fall on a public holiday. To comply with these rules the contribution must be in the employee’s superannuation fund on or before this date, unless the employer is using the ATO small business superannuation clearing house (SBSCH). The ATO has been applying considerable compliance resources in this space in recent years which can have an impact on both employees and employers. Employers To be eligible to claim a tax deduction on SG contributions the quarterly amount must be in the employee’s super account on or before the above quarterly due dates. The only exception to this is where the employer is using the ATO SBSCH. In that case a contribution is considered made provided it has been received by the SBSCH on or before the due date. Employers using commercial clearing houses should be mindful of turnaround times. Commercial clearing houses collect and distribute employee contributions and may be linked to accounting / payroll software or provided by some superannuation platforms. Anecdotally it seems that turnaround times for some clearing houses could be up to 14 days, so it is recommended that employers allow sufficient time before the quarterly deadlines when processing their employee SG contributions. If these deadlines are missed (yes even by a day!) that will trigger a superannuation guarantee charge (SGC) requirement which will result in a loss of the tax deduction and other penalties. The SGC requirements are outlined in the ATO link below: The super guarantee charge | Australian Taxation Office Employers do have the option to make SG payments more frequently than quarterly and this is something that employers will need to become used to if the proposed ‘payday’ superannuation reforms become law. This change is proposed to commence from 1 July 2026 and would require SG to be paid at the same frequency as salary or wages. There is some discussion on the payday super proposal at this link (noting that this is not yet law). The SBSCH will close at this time so employers using this service should start to consider transitioning to a commercial clearing house, please let us know you would like assistance with this. Employees It is recommended that you regularly check your superannuation fund statements and reconcile employer contributions to the amounts listed on your pay slips. Where SG contributions are not received on time (or at all!) employees are encouraged to discuss this first with their employer. Should this not result in a satisfactory conclusion, employees can consider bringing this to the attention of the ATO. There is some helpful discussion on this process at the following link .
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