Banks still worthy of a place in most portfolios

Clarke McEwan Accountants

Australian banks still worthy of a place in most portfolios… despite what some commentators say

Barring disasters, the banks should produce returns of the order of 10% per annum over the next decade. With a yield of 8% including franking credits, we need just 2% per annum growth to get us to a 10% per annum total return. Even if we get no growth in earnings, an 8% per annum return means that banks will be worth a place in most portfolios - barring disasters.

Disasters? What could possibly go wrong?

Anyone who follows the mainstream investment media will have no problem making some suggestions here. Ever increasing capital requirements, curbs on lending growth, new taxes, fines, Royal Commissions and other government interventions have been widely discussed. In addition, some outright disasters have been suggested, with a collapse in the residential property market the most common. And, of course, there is the possibility of an old fashioned, severe recession which inevitably would bring more pain for the banks.

Some of these scenarios are likely and should be factored into any forecast. Others may be unlikely but still are risks that we need to consider. Here, we want to put those risks in perspective particularly those that have been widely covered in the mainstream investment media and where we believe the impacts have been vastly overstated.

Increased regulatory and capital requirements

These are real and are happening right now and, accordingly, are in our base forecast. Most banks have around 10% of capital for each dollar of risk weighted assets – that should head towards 11% over time. This makes the banks safer but slightly less profitable. In addition, we have the bank levy which should slice around 2.5% off bank profits. Furthermore, we have threats of Royal Commissions, fines for bad behaviour, and so on. Collectively, we think these will reduce Earnings Per Share by about 10% over time. This slices just 1% per annum off returns over the next ten years. We include this impact in our forecast.

A slowdown in the growth of residential lending

We think this is highly likely and it is why we forecast future earnings growth at around 2% per annum. This is much lower than historical earnings growth and, in fact, this forecast is much lower than most other analysts' forecasts. And still it gets us to a 10% per annum return.

A recession is likely in the next decade and will hurt the banks

Our forecasts assume that Australia will experience a recession in the next decade. We also predict that, when the recession comes, the market will know about it before we do – and so the chances of getting out early will be small. Hence, the key question is how bad a recession might be, both in terms of depth and also in terms of how well prepared the banks are for that recession.

The depth of a recession is often depends upon the health of the banks to that recession. The more extended the banks, the more they cut lending, the more they harass existing borrowers, and the more they drive the economy into the ground. When banks enter a recession in better shape, the recession is generally milder. We saw that during the GFC where the Australian downturn was much milder than in other parts of the world because, at least in part, the Australian banks entered the recession in reasonable shape.

A 2015 RBA study found that the key drivers of bank lending losses during recessions were: rapid credit growth; high levels of building construction activity; falling bank lending standards; and, rising interest rates.

Today, we have modest levels of lending growth, normal levels of commercial building construction, tightening lending standards and no sign of a central bank with any interest in raising interest rates. Of those four loss drivers, the only one flashing a warning light right now is the high level of residential construction activity. Even there, the banks are scaling back their involvement and watching their risks very closely. In short, the banks are in good shape generally and in much better shape than prior to the GFC. This suggests that any recession in the next decade should be relatively mild so long as these indicators remain strong. If they turn south, caution will be required.

Our forecast assumes that a mild recession will occur and will result in a one-off reduction in profits of around a third and take around 0.5% per annum off 10-year returns.

Even mild recessions will cause short-term volatility

But before we get too comfortable, we should not forget that during a recession, bank share prices will probably fall by 50% or more. But the fall is unlikely to be permanent.

While this may seem dramatic, we would say the same thing about every other sector of the share market. All equities are volatile. All can fall dramatically during recessions. The banks are no different. As long-term investors, we should worry predominantly about a permanent loss of capital.

And that is a possibility if the recession is severe. Accordingly, no matter how attractive the prospects of Australian banks, all the normal rules of diversification still apply.

Impact of a collapse in the housing market

Now, this is where things hot up. The market is divided on this issue. There are those who consider that a collapse in housing prices and as a result, the banks, is almost certain; there are those who aren't sure; and, there are those who are extremely sceptical that we will see a housing induced collapse in the banks at all.

Farrelly's considers a collapse in housing prices as possible but unlikely:

  • We still seem to have a shortage of housing that not even the residential building boom is meeting;
  • Bank lending practices are being tightened but not sufficiently to cause an out-and-out collapse.

Nonetheless, it would be foolish to say that a collapse in housing prices couldn't happen. Accordingly, we consider the impact of an extreme example - a 35% fall in the prices of houses nationwide and an accompanying recession that sees soaring unemployment and a 10% default rate amongst mortgagees.

Helpfully, the major banks produce detailed reports showing the Loan to Valuation Ratios (LVRs) of their mortgage lending books. This is all we need to do our own stress test. Consider two loans, one has a LVR of 50% (in other words, $50 worth of loan for every $100 worth of house), while the other has an LVR of 90% ($90 worth of loan for every $100 worth of house.) Now assume that property prices fell by 35%.

Post the fall, the first loan now has $50 worth of loan for $65 worth of house, while the second has $90 of loan for every $65 worth of house. If the first borrower loses their job and can't repay the loan, the bank has the option of putting the property on the market, recouping their $50 loan and sending whatever is left back to the unfortunate borrower.

The second borrower would be a problem for the bank. Here, a default potentially costs the bank a loss of $25 for every $90 of loan.

Now let's assume that 10% of all mortgages default. The results for the major banks are shown in Figure 1 on the following page.

Figure 1: Bank stress test (35% downturn in property prices & 10% default rate)

ANZ

CBA

NAB

WBC

Size of loan book ($ bill)

274

436

285

414

Loss as a % of loan book if 10% default

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.4%

Loss In $mill

-1,479

-2,660

-1,807

-1,482

Loss as a % of 2017 pre-tax profits

-15%

-19%

-19%

-13%

Pre-tax profits 2017 ($mill)

9,704

14,114

9,306

11,050

Source: Bank reports, farrelly's analysis

That's right. A perfect storm of a 35% fall in residential property prices and a 10% default rate would result in the banks' profits falling by about 17% on average. While this is clearly not a great result, it falls a long way short of a disaster.

In a year or two, profits would rebound and normal business would resume. Farrelly's calculations suggest that the whole episode would reduce 10-year average returns by around just 0.5% per annum.

Now, a much more likely scenario is that if residential property prices do fall that it will be more like a fall of around 20% (rather than 35%). This causes a one-off reduction in profits of closer to 4%. It's a blip.

Residential property lending makes the banks safer, not riskier

The bottom line is this: residential property lending is actually an extremely profitable and safe activity for the banks. The fact that the Australian banks' lending books are highly concentrated in home loan lending should be a source of comfort rather than concern. It's the equivalent of having 70% of a portfolio invested in government bonds – the concentration, in this instance, makes the portfolio safer, not riskier.

Disclaimer: This article is not legal advice and should not be relied on as such. Any advice in this document is general advice only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. You should obtain financial advice relevant to your circumstances before making investment decisions. Where a particular financial product is mentioned you should consider the Product Disclosure Statement before making any decisions in relation to the product. Whilst every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, Australian Unity Personal Financial Services Ltd does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Australian Unity Personal Financial Services Ltd does not guarantee any particular outcome or future performance. Australian Unity Personal Financial Services Ltd is a registered tax (financial) adviser. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of Australian Unity Personal Financial Services Ltd. If you intend to rely on any tax advice in this document you should seek advice from a tax professional. Australian Unity Personal Financial Services Ltd ABN 26 098 725 145, AFSL & Australian Credit Licence No. 234459, 114 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205. This document produced in October 2017. © Copyright 2017

By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
The amount of money that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account will increase to $2m on 1 July 2025. Each year, advisers await the December inflation statistics to the be released. The reason is simple, the transfer balance cap – the amount that can be transferred to a tax-free retirement account – is indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released each December. If inflation goes up, the general transfer balance cap is indexed in increments of $100,000 at the start of the financial year. In December 2024, the inflation rate triggered an increase in the cap from $1.9m to $2m. The complexity with the transfer balance cap is that each person has an individual transfer balance cap. If you have started a retirement income stream, when indexation occurs, any increase only applies to your unused transfer balance cap. Considering retiring in 2025? If you are considering retiring, either fully or partially, indexation of the transfer balance cap provides a one-off opportunity to increase the amount of money you can transfer to your tax-free retirement account. That is, if you start taking a retirement income stream for the first time in June 2025, your transfer balance cap will be $1.9m but if you wait until July 2025 your transfer balance cap will be $2m, an extra tax-free $100,000. Already taking a pension? If you are already taking a retirement income stream, indexation applies to your unused transfer balance cap - so you might not benefit from the full $100,000 increase on 1 July 2025. Where can I see what my cap is? Your superannuation fund reports the value of your superannuation interests to the ATO. You can view your personal transfer balance cap, available cap space, and transfer balance account transactions online through the ATO link in myGov . If you have a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF), it is very important that your reporting obligations are up to date.
By Clarke McEwan April 14, 2025
In the 2025-26 Federal Budget the Government announced a ban on non-compete clauses and “no poach” agreements. In the 2025-26 Federal Budget, the Government announced its intention to ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees and consult on the use of non-compete clauses for those on high incomes (under the Fair Work Act the high income threshold is currently $175,000). The reason? A recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report found that 46.9% of businesses surveyed used some kind of restraint clause, including for workers in non-executive roles. The survey also found 20.8% of businesses use non-compete clauses for at least some of their staff and 68.2% for more than three-quarters of their employees. From an economic perspective, declining job mobility impacts wage growth and innovation as restraints prevent access to skilled workers within the economy. Productivity is a key concern as Australia’s productivity has declined in the last 20 years. Treasury’s consultation paper Non-compete clauses and other restraints states that, “the direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.” A Productivity Commission report estimates the effect of limiting the use of unreasonable restraint of trade clauses will be increased wages for workers - by up to up to 2.4% in industries with high use of non-compete clauses and up to 1.4% in others. Non-competes: the state of play  Non-compete clauses in Australia are generally enforced under common law. For all regions except New South Wales, restraints are generally presumed to be against the public interest and therefore void and unenforceable except where they are deemed to be reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interest of the employer1. In NSW, a restraint of trade is valid to the extent to which it is not against public policy. When non-competes are contested, the courts consider the nature and extent of the business interest to be protected (e.g., confidential client information) and whether the scope of restriction the business wants imposed is reasonable including its geographic area, time period and activities which the restraint seeks to control. Interests considered ‘legitimate’ by courts include the protection of trade secrets or other confidential information; protection against solicitation of clients with whom the former worker had a personal connection; and protection against key staff being recruited by a former colleague. An employer is not entitled to protect themselves against mere competition by a former worker . What now The ban on non-compete clauses was announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget. The Government has stated that it intends to consult on policy details, including exemptions, penalties, and transition arrangements. Following consultation and the passage of legislation, the reforms are anticipated to take effect from 2027, operating prospectively. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage about this measure, despite the enthusiasm of the Treasury economists, not least of which is the impending election. We’ll bring you more as further information is available.
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
From 1 July 2026, personal income tax rates will change. On the last sitting day of Parliament, the personal income tax rate reduction announced in the 2025-26 Federal Budget was confirmed. The modest reduction of 1% applies to the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket, reducing from its current rate of 16% to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28. The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year. With a 1 July 2026 start date, the outcome of the Federal election on 3 May 2025 and subsequent budgets will determine whether this change comes to fruition. Medicare levy threshold change for low-income earners Low-income earners do not pay the compulsory 2% Medicare levy until their assessable income reaches the threshold. The threshold is different depending on whether you are a single taxpayer, pensioner, and the number of children you have that are dependent on you. Parliament has confirmed the increase to the Medicare levy threshold announced in the Federal Budget. The threshold change is backdated to 1 July 2024, which means that taxpayers will benefit when they lodge their 2024-25 tax return. See our Budget 2025-26 summary for details.
Super guarantee rules catch up with employers
By Clarke McEwan April 13, 2025
The superannuation guarantee rules are broad and, in some circumstances, extend beyond the definition of common law employees to some directors, contractors, entertainers, sports persons and other workers. Employers need to pay compulsory superannuation guarantee (SG) to those considered employees under the definition in the SG rules. But, the SG definition of an employee is broad and just how far this definition extends has sparked debate of late about the rights of performers, gym instructors and others not typically considered employees. For employers and business owners, it is crucially important that if there is any uncertainty about the rights of workers to SG, your position is confirmed. This might be an initial assessment of the position by us, confirmed by an employment lawyer, or clarified by applying for a ATO private ruling covering your specific workplace arrangements. One of the things that employers find most alarming is that there is no tangible time limit on the recovery of outstanding SG obligations. In theory, the ATO can go back as far as it determines necessary to recover unpaid superannuation contributions for workers who are classified as employees for SG purposes. One of the key features of the SG system is to ensure that appropriate contributions are being made for employees and deemed employees, to adequately support them in their retirement. The SG laws, and complimentary director penalty regime, ensure that every cent owing to an employee for SG is paid. Who is not paid super guarantee? Super guarantee does not need to be paid to: Under 18s who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Private and domestic workers who do not work more than 30 hours a week. Non-resident employees who perform work outside of Australia. Employees temporarily working in Australia covered by an agreement. Some foreign executives who hold certain visas or entry permits. Generally, SG is not payable if you have entered into a contract with a company, trust or partnership. If you have Australian employees temporarily working outside of Australia in a country with a bilateral social security agreement , for example, the United States, you should continue paying SG and apply for a certificate of coverage to avoid paying super (or the equivalent) in the country where the employee is temporarily located. SG’s broader definition of an employee There is a section of the SG rules, section 12 , that specifies who is deemed to be an employee for SG purposes. This section extends the definition of an employee beyond common law to cover: Company directors who are remunerated for performing duties; Contractors working under a contract wholly or principally for their labour; Certain state and Commonwealth government contracted workers; and Those paid to perform or present any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport or other similar promotional activity. This includes people who provide services in connection with these activities or people paid in relation to film, tape, disc or television. Are contractors entitled to SG? If your contractor holds an Australian Business Number (ABN), this of itself will not prevent SG from applying. Where the arrangement looks like it is a contract for the provision of an individual’s labour and skills, it is likely they will meet the definition of an employee and SG will be payable. The SG rules state if, “a person works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person, the person is an employee of the other party to the contract.” This definition is alarming to many employers as the rate paid to contractors, and often the terms of the agreement, factor in an uplift for super guarantee and other entitlements that would normally be paid if the person was an employee. But for SG purposes, it does not matter what the contract says, if the person is deemed to be an employee under the rules, they are entitled to SG and the employer is obligated to pay it. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) states that SG needs to be paid to contractors if you pay them: under a verbal or written contract that is mainly for their labour (more than half the dollar value of the contract is for their labour) for their personal labour and skills (payment isn't dependent on achieving a specified result) to perform the contract work (work cannot be delegated to someone else). In a recent ruling , the ATO says that where the worker is required to use a substantial capital asset (such as a truck) this will help in arguing that the contract is not mainly for the labour of the worker, but this will always depend on the facts. Are directors paid SG? Yes. Directors (members of executive bodies of bodies corporate) should be paid SG if they are remunerated for performing duties for the company. Entertainers, performers and sportspeople Generally, if a performer operates through a company, trust, or partnership then there is not an employment relationship and SG is not payable. However, individual artists, performers and sportspeople are captured as employees under the SG rules ( section 12(8 )) where they are paid to: perform or present, or to participate in the performance or presentation of, any music, play, dance, entertainment, sport, display or promotional activity or any similar activity involving the exercise of intellectual, artistic, musical, physical or other personal skills; provide services in connection with an activity referred to above; perform services in, or in connection with, the making of any film, tape or disc or of any television or radio broadcast. Whoever is paying the individual for their labour, is generally responsible for the payment of that individual’s SG. For example, a music festival operator that contracts a sole trader to perform at a festival might be liable for SG for that performer. Likewise, if the sole trader contracts band members to perform with them at the festival, then the sole trader is responsible for the SG of the band members. If however, the music festival worked with an agency to supply the performers (the music festival pays the agency, the agency pays the performers), then the agency is likely to be responsible for the SG of the artists if there is a liability. If the agency only charges a booking fee and the festival pays the performers directly, then the festival is likely to be responsible for the performer’s SG. You can see from this how important it is to determine who meets the definition of an employee for SG purposes, and if so, to understand the parties to the deemed employment relationship. What’s a service “in connection to” The definition of an employee for SG purposes captures workers who work with performers, for example individuals that are producers, videographers, editors, etc. If the person meets the definition of an employee under the SG rules, then it is likely SG is payable. Is a gym instructor a sportsperson? A gym instructor may be captured under the definition of a deemed employee under the SG rules. Whether the gym is liable to pay the instructor SG really depends on the facts of the individual arrangement. Let’s look at the example of a gym instructor operating as a sole trader under an ABN. There is a contract between the instructor and the gym stating that the instructor is an independent contractor and is responsible for their own SG payments and other employment obligations. The instructor is paid per class, and per training session with clients, covering their time and labour. The instructor utilises the equipment of the gym and its scheduling system. The instructor wears the uniform of the gym. The instructor is trained by the gym in how to deliver the services of the gym.  Employee? Most likely because the ATO places a heavy significance on whether an individual is working to build their own business or someone else’s. If the instructor “..works under a contract that is wholly or principally for the labour of the person” then this also brings them into the SG net. If the employer, the gym, had not been paying SG, is it exposed to SG payments for the instructor since the employment relationship began.
Federal Budget 2025-26: what it means for your small business
By Clarke McEwan March 29, 2025
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivered the Federal Budget on 25 March. But what’s in the Budget for small business owners? We’ve got the lowdown on the main opportunities. #FederalBudget #Budget #businesstips
By Clarke McEwan March 21, 2025
As your accountant, we won't just look after the financial side of your business, we can also advise you on the strategic side of your company, including the importance of business development as vital part of your growth plan. Business development (BD) is what helps your company move from slow, organic growth to fast-paced, hypergrowth. And it’s only by putting the right drive and expertise behind your BD that you can turn your strategic ideas into real success stories. So, how can we help you achieve this? Talk to you about your strategic goals The starting point for any kind of BD activity is to pin down your goals and aims as a business. When you know what you want to achieve over the coming months, it’s far easier to define a strategy for success. And that’s easier to do when you talk to an objective adviser, like us. We can sit in on your board meetings, talk to your executive team and get a real handle on what makes the business tick. And, armed with this knowledge, we’ll work with you to drive the direction of your BD and find the best opportunities for you to focus on. Help you create a clear BD strategy and plan Having a defined set of BD goals is a good starting point. But to put this all into action in a productive way, you’re going to need a comprehensive plan for your BD projects. Our years of experience advising business leaders and their teams really comes into play here. We know the best routes to take, the budgets that will be needed and the right tactics for bringing in more contracts, sales and partnerships. By putting these strategies into a clear plan, and linking this to agreed timescales, you have a BD route map to follow and action. Introduce you to a broader network of business partners We work with a wide range of businesses across many different sectors, industries and niches. By introducing you to our network of clients, we welcome you into a supportive community of like-minded business owners. And that’s excellent news when looking for new partnerships. Whether it’s attending a local conference, an online webinar or one of our in-house client events, you’re going to meet new people, share new ideas and make the right connections. This is a great way to build alliances and work together with other local businesses. And when you’re well-connected, you set the very best foundations for your future BD activity. Provide better routes to funding and investment Whatever goals you’ve set for your BD projects, it’s likely that you’re going to need additional funding to finance this activity. Investing in your expansion, or new partnerships, is vital to getting a good return on your BD, so great access to finance is a definite bonus. We’ll advise you on the most appropriate funding channels and how you can use these facilities to finance your BD plans. And we can also link you up with banks, lenders and business finance specialists – so you get the advice and finance you need to bring your BD to life. Help you track and measure your BD performance Meeting your BD targets takes time – and a whole lot of dedication. Measuring your BD performance over time, helps you stay on track and gives you a good indication of how well you’re tracking against your planned progress. We’ll help you create the reporting and metrics you need, so you have clear data to track your progress over time. You can log your activity in your project management system, or your client relationship management (CRM) software, and keep clear notes on contacts made, relationships built and targets converted etc. If you want to get more from your BD, please do get in touch. We’ll partner with you to put some real drive, experience and impetus behind your BD strategies.
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